Dynamic Analysis of Energy Consumption of the Urban Transportation

Traffic congestion has become a main issue in modern life in big metropolitan areas. Today’s society suffers from wasted time, wasted fuel, air pollution, etc. due to increasing traffic congestion over time day. In this thesis, I present a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) developed to explore the impacts of various personal car usage reduction policies. For this study, I had collected required data from three activities: through questionnaire, government organization’s reports and existing literature. After testing and sensitivity analysis of the model, three scenarios are considered. 1) Optimistic scenario 2) Most likely scenario 3) Pessimistic scenario. Under these scenarios, this study applied three policies to examine their impacts on the use of personal vehicles. These three policies are: fuel price rise, budget increase and traffic control increase. After analyzing software outputs, the policy of fuel prices increase under all scenarios is selected the best policy.